The New Norm Is Global Employment Decision Making

By Abid Hamid, NED at Acumen International

Cross-border workforce movement is not new. For decades, companies have shifted people internationally to fill skills gaps or take advantage of lower employment costs. What has changed is the mix of forces driving that movement.

Ten years ago, global hiring was mostly a matter of cost and talent availability. Today, politics, economics, and regulation shape mobility as much as market demand. Compliance has become the gatekeeper for where and how talent can be deployed.

This new reality is not temporary. Geopolitical tensions, supply chain shifts, localisation policies, and digital borders are redrawing the map of global hiring. 

For international employers, identifying the right candidate is only part of the equation.  What matters is whether that person can be employed in a way that stands up over time, without legal or operational disruption.

This article maps the forces now reshaping global workforce migration and examines the hiring models that can turn compliance from a barrier into a working solution.

Geopolitics and Economics Redrawing Hiring Maps

Workforce planning is now dictated as much by geopolitics as by business strategy. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting sanctions regime shut down entire markets, forcing companies in energy, technology, and manufacturing to abandon operations and redeploy staff across Europe. These were not gradual adjustments but abrupt breaks in continuity that demanded immediate relocation and new compliance frameworks.

The war has also driven a surge in defence and security spending. EU member states and the UK are redirecting budgets toward military reinforcement and domestic arms production. That shift is creating urgent demand for engineers, technicians, and specialists across the defence supply chain — all roles that come with strict compliance conditions around export controls, national content rules, and security clearances.

The confrontation between the US and China has had a different but equally significant effect. Tariffs, investment restrictions, and export controls have disrupted trade and forced companies to reassess where they manufacture, innovate, and hire.

Instability in the Middle East — from the war in Syria to rising tensions affecting Red Sea shipping lanes — reinforces the same reality. Across multiple industries, the question is no longer just who to hire, but where people can be placed lawfully and sustainably across locations, roles and industries.

The common thread is clear: wars, sanctions, rearmament, and economic confrontation are not passing shocks. They are forces redrawing the global hiring map, closing some routes, opening others, and forcing employers to adapt at speed.

Europe’s Internal Shifts and Labour Gaps

Not all mobility shifts are the result of war or sanctions. Inside the EU, free movement has reshaped national labour markets in quieter but equally transformative  ways.

Romania illustrates the pattern. A steady outflow of workers into higher-paying EU states has left shortages across manufacturing, logistics, and services. To fill the gaps, employers are turning to third-country nationals from Asia and neighbouring non-EU states. The priority is no longer just sourcing CVs but securing immigration approvals, work permits, and quota allocations that make headcount possible.

Latvia and the wider Baltic region face similar workforce dynamics. Large numbers of workers have moved to Germany, the UK, Ireland, and Scandinavia, leaving domestic shortages in construction, healthcare, and transport. Employers are increasingly hiring from Ukraine, Belarus, Central Asia, and more recently South and Southeast Asia. Here, compliance is layered with geopolitical sensitivity: proximity to Russia and Belarus brings added political scrutiny of foreign labour inflows.

Across Central and Eastern Europe, the same cycle repeats. Outward mobility to richer markets has created inward dependence on third-country nationals. Immigration and compliance frameworks now sit at the core of workforce planning — a shift that makes compliant employment as decisive as finding the right talent itself.

New Supply Chains, New Talent Corridors

The geopolitical and economic shocks of recent years have not only disrupted trade but also forced companies to rethink where they base production, research, and services. The outcome is a major redistribution of supply chains, and with it, new patterns of labour demand.

In the Americas, manufacturers and service providers are expanding into  Mexico and Brazil, using nearshoring to limit exposure to tariffs and geopolitical risk. In Asia-Pacific, countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, and India are absorbing investment once destined for China. In Europe, Turkey and parts of Central and Eastern Europe are emerging as lower-cost, lower-risk alternatives.

Each relocation creates parallel challenges in workforce deployment. New factories, R&D hubs, and service centres all require rapid staffing of both highly skilled engineers and semi-skilled workers. The bottleneck is no longer talent availability alone, but the ability to employ people lawfully: securing labour permits, registering payroll and social security, and aligning with local employment law before operations can begin.

For global employers, supply chain strategy and workforce planning are now inseparable. The decision to move production is simultaneously a decision about how, and under what compliance framework, people can be hired to make it work.

National Quotas Reshaping Global Workforce Strategy

Many governments are no longer content to be destinations for foreign capital and labour, they want their own citizens in the workforce, and they are enforcing it.

The Gulf states are the clearest example. Saudisation in Saudi Arabia and Emiratisation in the UAE now set mandatory ratios of local-to-expatriate staff, backed by penalties, grace periods, and sector-specific targets. For employers, compliance is not optional. 

Meeting localisation rules has become a condition of winning contracts, retaining operating licences, and in some cases maintaining the visa quotas that expatriate teams depend on.

This pattern is not confined to the Gulf. Variations on nationalisation policies are appearing in parts of Africa and Asia, where governments link inward investment to guaranteed local employment.

The result is that workforce planning has to be designed around regulation. Employers cannot simply hire the best-qualified candidate from abroad; they must first prove that local hiring obligations are met. Expatriates are then layered in only where local skills are unavailable. Recruitment has become a compliance-driven balancing act between global expertise and national quotas.

Border Regulations and Digital Enforcement

Irregular migration into Europe and the UK has become one of the most visible political flashpoints. While most of this movement sits outside formal labour markets, the political response has a direct impact on employers trying to hire lawfully.

Governments under pressure to “tighten borders” are raising salary thresholds, narrowing visa categories, and imposing tougher labour-market tests on legitimate work permits. Roles that were accessible a few years ago are now out of reach unless they meet higher wage levels or fall under strictly defined shortage categories.

This political drive is being reinforced by technology. The EU’s new Entry/Exit System (EES) and ETIAS will register travellers biometrically and track overstays automatically. The UK has digitised immigration status and work permit sponsor management, while other regions are adopting e-visa systems linked to tax and labour databases.

The consequence is clear: informal workarounds — visitor visas, delayed registrations, under-the-radar assignments — are no longer viable. Immigration and compliance frameworks now set the outer limits of recruitment. Candidate pools matter less if the legal route to put them to work is blocked or digitally monitored out of existence.

Compliance as the New Gatekeeper

Hiring across borders is becoming harder not because talent is scarce, but because the rules for employing them are narrowing.

Visa systems are one of the clearest examples. In the UK and much of Europe, minimum salary thresholds for sponsorship have risen sharply. A role that was easily sponsored five years ago may now fall short unless the pay is adjusted upward. Immigration is no longer an HR formality; it shapes compensation strategy and workforce planning from the outset.

Contractor models face the same squeeze. Tax authorities, under pressure to raise revenues, are targeting misclassification as disguised employment. Engagements that once passed without scrutiny are being reclassified, leaving companies liable for back taxes, unpaid social contributions, and retroactive employment obligations.

In high-control sectors such as defence, cyber, and energy, compliance goes even further. Export controls, data protection laws, and security clearance regimes can bar certain nationalities or profiles from working on sensitive projects. In these industries, employment eligibility is determined as much by regulation as by skill.

The consequence is straightforward: recruitment cannot advance without a compliance plan. Immigration feasibility, contractor risk, and sector-specific restrictions now determine the pace and direction of hiring. Finding talent is only useful if there is a legal route to put that person to work.

Sectors Most Exposed to Global Shifts

The impact of these shifts is not evenly distributed. Some industries are more exposed because their workforces are inherently mobile, tightly regulated, or closely tied to geopolitics.

Energy and natural resources are the clearest example. Sanctions and localisation quotas are reshaping where projects can run and who can be hired to deliver them. For many operators, staffing decisions are now dictated as much by government policy as by project demand.

Advanced manufacturing and semiconductors face a different challenge. As production is pulled out of China and redirected to Vietnam, Mexico, and Eastern Europe, the priority is not only building new facilities but legally staffing them at speed. Compliance timetables now set the pace of global production.

Life sciences and pharmaceuticals carry a heavy regulatory burden of their own. Research and manufacturing roles are tightly bound to data protection, export controls, and intellectual property rules. Here, contracts and compliance frameworks are inseparable from the science itself.

Cybersecurity and defence-adjacent technology follow a similar pattern. National security restrictions and export-control regimes can make skilled staff ineligible purely on the basis of nationality, regardless of demand.

Infrastructure and logistics highlight the same pressures on a larger scale. Multi-country projects trigger posted-worker rules, collective agreements, and union oversight long before the first worker is on site.

In each of these sectors, the point is the same: workforce strategy cannot be separated from compliance. Hiring is no longer just about access to talent and skills, but about building teams that can lawfully operate and endure in complex regulatory environments.

From Time-to-Hire to Time-to-Lawful-Work

Finding and hiring the right person has always been a challenge, but in today’s global market the measure of success has changed. It is no longer enough to identify the best candidate; employers must also establish how that person can be employed lawfully, wherever they are. The benchmark has shifted from time-to-hire to time-to-lawful-work.

Every international hire now requires a clear route-to-work plan. Can the individual secure the right visa? How will payroll and taxes be managed? Which social security system applies? Does their presence create legal or tax exposure for the business? Missing even one piece can stall the hire or expose the company to significant risk.

Governments are also digitising their immigration and labour systems, closing the “grey zones” that once gave companies room to manoeuvre. Fines, blocked permits, and business disruption are no longer theoretical risks — they are regular outcomes of non-compliance.

This environment is reshaping recruitment itself. Agencies and in-house teams that only focus on sourcing candidates are losing ground to providers who can deliver the full picture: not just finding talent, but also securing the legal and compliance framework to employ them. Success now belongs to those who can combine both.

Recruitment Agencies Becoming Employment Solution Partners

The pressures reshaping global hiring are not only felt by employers. Recruitment agencies themselves are being forced to evolve. It is no longer enough to deliver a shortlist and a placement fee. Clients increasingly expect agencies to ensure that the people they recommend can be employed lawfully, and remain in role without disruption.

This shift has pushed leading agencies to expand into compliance and employment delivery.

• Adecco now markets Employer of Record (EOR) services alongside its traditional temporary staffing.
• Randstad Sourceright explicitly includes Employer of Record and payroll in its solutions.
• ManpowerGroup offers EOR through its country-level operations, helping clients navigate local law and administration.

Partnership models are extending this trend. YunoJuno, an enterprise freelancer platform, has linked with Deel to offer clients not just access to freelance talent but a compliant way to employ them globally. Globalization Partners (G-P) has created a partner programme allowing agencies to resell its EOR and contractor services, bundling people and compliance into one offer.

The common thread is clear: recruitment is no longer a standalone service. Agencies that cannot connect talent sourcing with compliant workforce engagement risk being sidelined. Those that can integrate or partner to deliver both are positioning themselves as long-term employment-solution providers.

The New Paradigm: Building Lasting Global Teams

Today’s employment landscape is being reshaped by converging political, economic, and regulatory pressures. This is not a passing phase; new workforce migration patterns are here to stay and will define how international teams are built in the years ahead. Employers now have to rethink not only where they hire, but also how those hires can lawfully remain in place.

The old transactional model of recruitment — shortlists, interviews, and one-off placements — has reached its limit. It was built for a world where immigration rules were more permissive, compliance less visible, and talent pipelines more predictable. That world has gone. Today, every appointment must be tested against border controls, localisation quotas, contractual enforceability, and the long-term sustainability of the employment model.

Forward-looking employers and recruitment companies have already adapted. They recognise that solutions which stop at the point of hire are no longer enough. The expectation now is for integrated approaches that connect sourcing with lawful onboarding, payroll, and retention, ensuring people can work, stay in role, and contribute without disruption.

The hiring journey is no longer a chain of separate steps. It is a single, continuous process shaped by compliance and employer strategy from the outset. Those who master that integration will be the ones able to attract and keep global talent in an era where migration is not just a trend but a defining force of the future.

This thought leadership was originally published on the Acumen International website and is republished here for the benefit of our Global Alliance partners.